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OPEC poised to scrap Q4 production hike

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As of mid-August, Brent crude oil has experienced a USD 5 per barrel (6.5%) increase in price since the low point on August 5th, currently trading at USD 80.3 per barrel, and remaining relatively unchanged from Monday’s opening.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

As previously noted, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) did not make any new recommendations at their meeting on August 1st. Specifically, a planned production increase of 2.2 million barrels per day is set to be gradually implemented from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025. However, despite this being the current OPEC base case, it is subject to significant uncertainties. If market conditions do not favor OPEC, the production increase may not materialize.

This week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that global oil markets could shift from a deficit to a surplus in Q4 2024 if OPEC+ proceeds with the aforementioned plan. This is not surprising and aligns with the consensus view; however, the plan is far from certain and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Global oil and product inventories have significantly depleted during peak summer demand. Yet, the recent drawdowns have been larger than expected: Yesterday, U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels (3% below the five-year average), and distillate (diesel) inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels (7% below the five-year average). Consequently, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week, which is counter-seasonal when compared with the 2015-2021 average.

As we exit the Northern hemisphere peak demand period, and assuming crude and product inventories stabilize according to seasonal patterns, a potential production increase from OPEC+ in October could lead to an oversupply.

Additionally, there is slowing demand growth in China, the world’s largest importer. Therefore, we believe that the OPEC+ plan, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to gradually increase production by 543,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter will likely be adjusted or even scrapped. At present, there is no room for these additional volumes.

Brent crude continues to hover around USD 80 per barrel. A production increase from OPEC+ would likely cause prices to plummet to USD 60-70 per barrel overnight, which is well below the cartel’s ideal price range of USD 80-90 per barrel.

Furthermore, recent price volatility has increased due to conflicting factors. On one hand, relatively strong summer demand and heightened geopolitical tensions have pushed prices up, while on the other, weak economic growth in China has exerted downward pressure.

As a result, OPEC recently lowered its 2024 demand growth forecast due to weaker Chinese demand. However, it still projects growth rates more than double those estimated by the IEA, which expects global oil consumption to rise by about 1% annually, reaching 103.06 million barrels per day in 2024. This projection considers economic challenges and the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.

Another downside risk is the current positioning of managed money in petroleum futures, which suggests a bearish outlook, as highlighted by McGlone. A potential mean reversion in the stock market could be a critical factor when comparing crude oil to the S&P 500 Beta.

Petroleum speculators are nearing their most bearish stance, coinciding with the S&P 500 retreating from a 26% surge above its 100-week moving average in July (see pages 5-8 attached).

Historically, crude oil tends to decline when the S&P 500 Beta does. Over the past 25 years, the only instance where the S&P 500 maintained a level above a 26% premium to its mean for more than a few weeks was during the unprecedented monetary expansion in 2021, which may signal a forthcoming correction.

A continued and typical reversion in Beta could apply downward pressure on both WTI and Brent crude. Since 2011, petroleum speculators have averaged a 13% net-long position, with the lowest point being 4.4% in 2020.

This does not imply a negative outlook on the price curve. Our target for Brent crude is USD 85 per barrel in 2024. Year-to-date, the price has averaged USD 83.2 per barrel. Price distribution within a year typically varies by USD 15 per barrel from the mean. Therefore, we could see prices as high as USD 100 per barrel and as low as USD 70 per barrel. In very general terms, USD 70 per barrel could be seen at some point this year purely due to statistical fluctuations. This might occur in the coming weeks or months, as the latest market scare—though not a recession—resembles a correction that may still have more to play out. Additionally, ongoing uncertainty regarding the OPEC+ strategy continues to affect the market.

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However, current market fundamentals suggest that OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production in the fourth quarter. Combined with increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, we remain confident in our Brent crude price direction and recommend continuing to buy at lower/mid USD 70 per barrel in the short term, reaffirming our positive outlook for Brent crude.

Analys

Volatile but going nowhere. Brent crude circles USD 66 as market weighs surplus vs risk

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Brent crude is essentially flat on the week, but after a volatile ride. Prices started Monday near USD 65.5/bl, climbed steadily to a mid-week high of USD 67.8/bl on Wednesday evening, before falling sharply – losing about USD 2/bl during Thursday’s session.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

Brent is currently trading around USD 65.8/bl, right back where it began. The volatility reflects the market’s ongoing struggle to balance growing surplus risks against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and resilient refined product margins. Thursday’s slide snapped a three-day rally and came largely in response to a string of bearish signals, most notably from the IEA’s updated short-term outlook.

The IEA now projects record global oversupply in 2026, reinforcing concerns flagged earlier by the U.S. EIA, which already sees inventories building this quarter. The forecast comes just days after OPEC+ confirmed it will continue returning idle barrels to the market in October – albeit at a slower pace of +137,000 bl/d. While modest, the move underscores a steady push to reclaim market share and adds to supply-side pressure into year-end.

Thursday’s price drop also followed geopolitical incidences: Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted Hamas leadership in Doha, while Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace – events that initially sent crude higher as traders covered short positions.

Yet, sentiment remains broadly cautious. Strong refining margins and low inventories at key pricing hubs like Europe continue to support the downside. Chinese stockpiling of discounted Russian barrels and tightness in refined product markets – especially diesel – are also lending support.

On the demand side, the IEA revised up its 2025 global demand growth forecast by 60,000 bl/d to 740,000 bl/d YoY, while leaving 2026 unchanged at 698,000 bl/d. Interestingly, the agency also signaled that its next long-term report could show global oil demand rising through 2050.

Meanwhile, OPEC offered a contrasting view in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, maintaining expectations for a supply deficit both this year and next, even as its members raise output. The group kept its demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1.29 million bl/d and 1.38 million bl/d, respectively.

We continue to watch whether the bearish supply outlook will outweigh geopolitical risk, and if Brent can continue to find support above USD 65/bl – a level increasingly seen as a soft floor for OPEC+ policy.

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Waiting for the surplus while we worry about Israel and Qatar

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Brent crude makes some gains as Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar rattles markets. Brent crude spiked to a high of USD 67.38/b yesterday as Israel made a strike on Hamas in Qatar. But it  wasn’t able to hold on to that level and only closed up 0.6% in the end at USD 66.39/b. This morning it is starting on the up with a gain of 0.9% at USD 67/b. Still rattled by Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar yesterday. Brent is getting some help on the margin this morning with Asian equities higher and copper gaining half a percent. But the dark cloud of surplus ahead is nonetheless hanging over the market with Brent trading two dollar lower than last Tuesday.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities, SEB

Geopolitical risk premiums in oil rarely lasts long unless actual supply disruption kicks in. While Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar is shocking, the geopolitical risk lifting crude oil yesterday and this morning is unlikely to last very long as such geopolitical risk premiums usually do not last long unless real disruption kicks in.

US API data yesterday indicated a US crude and product stock build last week of 3.1 mb. The US API last evening released partial US oil inventory data indicating that US crude stocks rose 1.3 mb and middle distillates rose 1.5 mb while gasoline rose 0.3 mb. In total a bit more than 3 mb increase. US crude and product stocks usually rise around 1 mb per week this time of year. So US commercial crude and product stock rose 2 mb over the past week adjusted for the seasonal norm. Official and complete data are due today at 16:30.

A 2 mb/week seasonally adj. US stock build implies a 1 – 1.4 mb/d global surplus if it is persistent. Assume that if the global oil market is running a surplus then some 20% to 30% of that surplus ends up in US commercial inventories. A 2 mb seasonally adjusted inventory build equals 286 kb/d. Divide by 0.2 to 0.3 and we get an implied global surplus of 950 kb/d to 1430 kb/d. A 2 mb/week seasonally adjusted build in US oil inventories is close to noise unless it is a persistent pattern every week.

US IEA STEO oil report: Robust surplus ahead and Brent averaging USD 51/b in 2026. The US EIA yesterday released its monthly STEO oil report. It projected a large and persistent surplus ahead. It estimates a global surplus of 2.2 m/d from September to December this year. A 2.4 mb/d surplus in Q1-26 and an average surplus for 2026 of 1.6 mb/d resulting in an average Brent crude oil price of USD 51/b next year. And that includes an assumption where OPEC crude oil production only averages 27.8 mb/d in 2026 versus 27.0 mb/d in 2024 and 28.6 mb/d in August.

Brent will feel the bear-pressure once US/OECD stocks starts visible build. In the meanwhile the oil market sits waiting for this projected surplus to materialize in US and OECD inventories. Once they visibly starts to build on a consistent basis, then Brent crude will likely quickly lose altitude. And unless some unforeseen supply disruption kicks in, it is bound to happen.

US IEA STEO September report. In total not much different than it was in January

US IEA STEO September report. In total not much different than it was in January
Source: SEB graph. US IEA data

US IEA STEO September report. US crude oil production contracting in 2026, but NGLs still growing. Close to zero net liquids growth in total.

US IEA STEO September report. US crude oil production contracting in 2026, but NGLs still growing. Close to zero net liquids growth in total.
Source: SEB graph. US IEA data
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Brent crude sticks around $66 as OPEC+ begins the ’slow return’

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Brent crude touched a low of USD 65.07 per barrel on Friday evening before rebounding sharply by USD 2 to USD 67.04 by mid-day Monday. The rally came despite confirmation from OPEC+ of a measured production increase starting next month. Prices have since eased slightly, down USD 0.6 to around USD 66.50 this morning, as the market evaluates the group’s policy, evolving demand signals, and rising geopolitical tension.

Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB
Ole R. Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities, SEB

On Sunday, OPEC+ approved a 137,000 barrels-per-day increase in collective output beginning in October – a cautious first step in unwinding the final tranche of 1.66 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, originally set to remain off the market through end-2026. Further adjustments will depend on ”evolving market conditions.” While the pace is modest – especially relative to prior monthly hikes – the signal is clear: OPEC+ is methodically re-entering the market with a strategic intent to reclaim lost market share, rather than defend high prices.

This shift in tone comes as Saudi Aramco also trimmed its official selling prices for Asian buyers, further reinforcing the group’s tilt toward a volume-over-price strategy. We see this as a clear message: OPEC+ intends to expand market share through steady production increases, and a lower price point – potentially below USD 65/b – may be necessary to stimulate demand and crowd out higher-cost competitors, particularly U.S. shale, where average break-evens remain around WTI USD 50/b.

Despite the policy shift, oil prices have held firm. Brent is still hovering near USD 66.50/b, supported by low U.S. and OECD inventories, where crude and product stocks remain well below seasonal norms, keeping front-month backwardation intact. Also, the low inventory levels at key pricing hubs in Europe and continued stockpiling by Chinese refiners are also lending resilience to prices. Tightness in refined product markets, especially diesel, has further underpinned this.

Geopolitical developments are also injecting a slight risk premium. Over the weekend, Russia launched its most intense air assault on Kyiv since the war began, damaging central government infrastructure. This escalation comes as the EU weighs fresh sanctions on Russian oil trade and financial institutions. Several European leaders are expected in Washington this week to coordinate on Ukraine strategy – and the prospect of tighter restrictions on Russian crude could re-emerge as a price stabilizer.

In Asia, China’s crude oil imports rose to 49.5 million tons in August, up 0.8% YoY. The rise coincides with increased Chinese interest in Russian Urals, offered at a discount during falling Indian demand. Chinese refiners appear to be capitalizing on this arbitrage while avoiding direct exposure to U.S. trade penalties.

Going forward, our attention turns to the data calendar. The EIA’s STEO is due today (Tuesday), followed by the IEA and OPEC monthly oil market reports on Thursday. With a pending supply surplus projected during the fourth quarter and into 2026, markets will dissect these updates for any changes in demand assumptions and non-OPEC supply growth. Stay tuned!

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