Analys
Crude oil comment: Unable to rebound as the US SPX is signaling dark clouds on the horizon

Held in check within a tight range. Brent managed to stage a small 0.4% gain yesterday. It closed at USD 69.56/b and traded within a range of USD 68.63 – 7.44/b. This morning it is adding another 0.4% to USD 69.8/b. Since 4 March it has closed within a tight range of USD 69.28 – 70.36/b and traded within a slightly wider range of USD 68.33 – 71.4/b.

Depressed by US equity market sell-off saying dark clouds are on the horizon. When we look at the dips to the 70-line and below since late 2021 we see that they have been very brief with little staying power at that level. Bouncing back up very quickly. Just a quick touch. This time however we have been staying down around the 70-line for 6-7 days. Despite the fact that the front-end 1-3mth time-spreads have held up and have not fallen off a cliff.
What stands out with the current selloff versus the previous selloffs is the sharp decline in the S&P 500 index. (SPX) Down 9.3% since 19 Feb. The SPX index is the ”canary in the coal mine”. It is all about the negative fallout from Trump-Tariff-Turmoil and all the other erratic and disrupting actions from Trump. The US equity market is saying that this is BAD for the US economy. And if so, it is usually also bad for the rest of the world in the old sense that ”when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold”.
The implication of this is that if we now get an equity market rebound, then we are likely to get an oil price rebound as well since that is what seems to hold back the Brent crude oil price at the current level.
To all we can see however, Donald Trump does not seem to back off. He is steamrolling ahead. Drugged by his own power and assumed infallibility. The fear by investors which the SPX index is signaling aren’t going to go away except for temporary rebounds. Instead, we are likely to see increasing negative readings in a range of macro variables going forward as a consequence of what Trump is currently doing. The single reason for why we at all doubt that this will be the case is because we have never, ever seen anything like this out of the US in some 100 years or more.
US EIA says, ”all is good” while US oil veteran says, ”prepare for USD 50-60/b”. The US EIA ydy published its monthly oil market report (STEO). It projects a smaller surplus in 2025 with Brent crude averaging USD 74/b this year and USD 68/b next year. Fundamental to this forecast is that all is good and well with global oil demand growing by 1.4 mb/d this year and by 1.6 mb/d in 2026. No negative fallout with respect to global oil demand there reflecting the potential negative economic fallout from Trump-Turmoil.
The US shale oil pioneer Scott Sheffield on the other hand says that ”you’ve really got to hunker down” and prepare for oil to drop to USD 50-60/b as non-US production grows while China demand peaks. That is even without taking any note on possible negative fallout from current Trump actions. What Scott is saying here is echoed by the US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the previous CEO of Liberty Energy, North America’s second largest hydraulic fracturing company, who has recently said that we’ll likely see a period of industry disruption ahead similar to the price war between OPEC and US shale oil producers in 2014.
These statements from US shale oil veterans in combination with the current vote of no confidence by US equity investors should be taken very seriously.
But then OPEC+ is always a wildcard and can counter oil price declines due to global macro weakness quite quickly as the group today meets on a regular monthly basis.

The Brent 1mth contract has been trading in a very tight range and for significant longer than the previous dips to the 70-line since late 2021 which lasted for only a day or two.

The Brent crude 1mth contract is probably currently held down and in check just below the 70-line because of the ”canary in the coal mine” SPX selloff signaling dark clouds on the horizon.

Analys
Volatile but going nowhere. Brent crude circles USD 66 as market weighs surplus vs risk

Brent crude is essentially flat on the week, but after a volatile ride. Prices started Monday near USD 65.5/bl, climbed steadily to a mid-week high of USD 67.8/bl on Wednesday evening, before falling sharply – losing about USD 2/bl during Thursday’s session.

Brent is currently trading around USD 65.8/bl, right back where it began. The volatility reflects the market’s ongoing struggle to balance growing surplus risks against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and resilient refined product margins. Thursday’s slide snapped a three-day rally and came largely in response to a string of bearish signals, most notably from the IEA’s updated short-term outlook.
The IEA now projects record global oversupply in 2026, reinforcing concerns flagged earlier by the U.S. EIA, which already sees inventories building this quarter. The forecast comes just days after OPEC+ confirmed it will continue returning idle barrels to the market in October – albeit at a slower pace of +137,000 bl/d. While modest, the move underscores a steady push to reclaim market share and adds to supply-side pressure into year-end.
Thursday’s price drop also followed geopolitical incidences: Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted Hamas leadership in Doha, while Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace – events that initially sent crude higher as traders covered short positions.
Yet, sentiment remains broadly cautious. Strong refining margins and low inventories at key pricing hubs like Europe continue to support the downside. Chinese stockpiling of discounted Russian barrels and tightness in refined product markets – especially diesel – are also lending support.
On the demand side, the IEA revised up its 2025 global demand growth forecast by 60,000 bl/d to 740,000 bl/d YoY, while leaving 2026 unchanged at 698,000 bl/d. Interestingly, the agency also signaled that its next long-term report could show global oil demand rising through 2050.
Meanwhile, OPEC offered a contrasting view in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, maintaining expectations for a supply deficit both this year and next, even as its members raise output. The group kept its demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1.29 million bl/d and 1.38 million bl/d, respectively.
We continue to watch whether the bearish supply outlook will outweigh geopolitical risk, and if Brent can continue to find support above USD 65/bl – a level increasingly seen as a soft floor for OPEC+ policy.
Analys
Waiting for the surplus while we worry about Israel and Qatar

Brent crude makes some gains as Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar rattles markets. Brent crude spiked to a high of USD 67.38/b yesterday as Israel made a strike on Hamas in Qatar. But it wasn’t able to hold on to that level and only closed up 0.6% in the end at USD 66.39/b. This morning it is starting on the up with a gain of 0.9% at USD 67/b. Still rattled by Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar yesterday. Brent is getting some help on the margin this morning with Asian equities higher and copper gaining half a percent. But the dark cloud of surplus ahead is nonetheless hanging over the market with Brent trading two dollar lower than last Tuesday.

Geopolitical risk premiums in oil rarely lasts long unless actual supply disruption kicks in. While Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar is shocking, the geopolitical risk lifting crude oil yesterday and this morning is unlikely to last very long as such geopolitical risk premiums usually do not last long unless real disruption kicks in.
US API data yesterday indicated a US crude and product stock build last week of 3.1 mb. The US API last evening released partial US oil inventory data indicating that US crude stocks rose 1.3 mb and middle distillates rose 1.5 mb while gasoline rose 0.3 mb. In total a bit more than 3 mb increase. US crude and product stocks usually rise around 1 mb per week this time of year. So US commercial crude and product stock rose 2 mb over the past week adjusted for the seasonal norm. Official and complete data are due today at 16:30.
A 2 mb/week seasonally adj. US stock build implies a 1 – 1.4 mb/d global surplus if it is persistent. Assume that if the global oil market is running a surplus then some 20% to 30% of that surplus ends up in US commercial inventories. A 2 mb seasonally adjusted inventory build equals 286 kb/d. Divide by 0.2 to 0.3 and we get an implied global surplus of 950 kb/d to 1430 kb/d. A 2 mb/week seasonally adjusted build in US oil inventories is close to noise unless it is a persistent pattern every week.
US IEA STEO oil report: Robust surplus ahead and Brent averaging USD 51/b in 2026. The US EIA yesterday released its monthly STEO oil report. It projected a large and persistent surplus ahead. It estimates a global surplus of 2.2 m/d from September to December this year. A 2.4 mb/d surplus in Q1-26 and an average surplus for 2026 of 1.6 mb/d resulting in an average Brent crude oil price of USD 51/b next year. And that includes an assumption where OPEC crude oil production only averages 27.8 mb/d in 2026 versus 27.0 mb/d in 2024 and 28.6 mb/d in August.
Brent will feel the bear-pressure once US/OECD stocks starts visible build. In the meanwhile the oil market sits waiting for this projected surplus to materialize in US and OECD inventories. Once they visibly starts to build on a consistent basis, then Brent crude will likely quickly lose altitude. And unless some unforeseen supply disruption kicks in, it is bound to happen.
US IEA STEO September report. In total not much different than it was in January

US IEA STEO September report. US crude oil production contracting in 2026, but NGLs still growing. Close to zero net liquids growth in total.

Analys
Brent crude sticks around $66 as OPEC+ begins the ’slow return’

Brent crude touched a low of USD 65.07 per barrel on Friday evening before rebounding sharply by USD 2 to USD 67.04 by mid-day Monday. The rally came despite confirmation from OPEC+ of a measured production increase starting next month. Prices have since eased slightly, down USD 0.6 to around USD 66.50 this morning, as the market evaluates the group’s policy, evolving demand signals, and rising geopolitical tension.

On Sunday, OPEC+ approved a 137,000 barrels-per-day increase in collective output beginning in October – a cautious first step in unwinding the final tranche of 1.66 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, originally set to remain off the market through end-2026. Further adjustments will depend on ”evolving market conditions.” While the pace is modest – especially relative to prior monthly hikes – the signal is clear: OPEC+ is methodically re-entering the market with a strategic intent to reclaim lost market share, rather than defend high prices.
This shift in tone comes as Saudi Aramco also trimmed its official selling prices for Asian buyers, further reinforcing the group’s tilt toward a volume-over-price strategy. We see this as a clear message: OPEC+ intends to expand market share through steady production increases, and a lower price point – potentially below USD 65/b – may be necessary to stimulate demand and crowd out higher-cost competitors, particularly U.S. shale, where average break-evens remain around WTI USD 50/b.
Despite the policy shift, oil prices have held firm. Brent is still hovering near USD 66.50/b, supported by low U.S. and OECD inventories, where crude and product stocks remain well below seasonal norms, keeping front-month backwardation intact. Also, the low inventory levels at key pricing hubs in Europe and continued stockpiling by Chinese refiners are also lending resilience to prices. Tightness in refined product markets, especially diesel, has further underpinned this.
Geopolitical developments are also injecting a slight risk premium. Over the weekend, Russia launched its most intense air assault on Kyiv since the war began, damaging central government infrastructure. This escalation comes as the EU weighs fresh sanctions on Russian oil trade and financial institutions. Several European leaders are expected in Washington this week to coordinate on Ukraine strategy – and the prospect of tighter restrictions on Russian crude could re-emerge as a price stabilizer.
In Asia, China’s crude oil imports rose to 49.5 million tons in August, up 0.8% YoY. The rise coincides with increased Chinese interest in Russian Urals, offered at a discount during falling Indian demand. Chinese refiners appear to be capitalizing on this arbitrage while avoiding direct exposure to U.S. trade penalties.
Going forward, our attention turns to the data calendar. The EIA’s STEO is due today (Tuesday), followed by the IEA and OPEC monthly oil market reports on Thursday. With a pending supply surplus projected during the fourth quarter and into 2026, markets will dissect these updates for any changes in demand assumptions and non-OPEC supply growth. Stay tuned!
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