Analys
Crude oil comment: OPEC+ meeting postponement adds new uncertainties

Since last Friday’s close at USD 75.4 per barrel, Brent crude prices have experienced a steady decline over the week, bringing an end to the upward momentum observed since mid-November. Trading has been marked by volatility, highlighted by a sharp sell-off on Monday afternoon (CEST), which was driven by reduced geopolitical uncertainty. As of now, Brent crude has dropped USD 2.9 per barrel this week and is trading at USD 72.5 per barrel.

Geopolitical developments have played a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment this week. Israel and Lebanon have reached the terms of an agreement to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The current cease-fire has alleviated some of the geopolitical tensions in the region, reducing some of the risk premium that had supported crude prices in recent weeks.
On the supply side, OPEC+ has introduced new uncertainties by delaying its upcoming meeting, which was originally scheduled for Sunday, December 1st. The group is set to deliberate on whether to revive production cuts by implementing a scheduled supply increase of 180,000 barrels per day (to begin with). However, signals from OPEC+ delegates earlier this week indicate ongoing discussions about postponing this move, potentially for several months. This delay aligns with a cautious market outlook, as global demand remains subdued, leaving little room for additional OPEC+ barrels in the market. The cartel appears acutely aware of the delicate balance, avoiding actions that could oversupply the market.
Meanwhile, speculation surrounding a potential surge in US oil production – up 3 million barrels per day – has gained attention. Such a ramp-up could drive crude prices below USD 50 per barrel but is considered unrealistic. US producers understand the strategic risks involved, particularly with OPEC+ holding an estimated 5–6 million barrels of spare capacity. A significant production increase by the US would likely provoke a strong response from OPEC+, potentially flooding the market to protect market share. Such a scenario would lead to sharp price declines, ultimately punishing US production rather than fostering growth. This dynamic makes the proposed ramp-up highly unlikely.
Inventory data from the US DOE further highlights the tight supply conditions in the market. Commercial crude inventories (excl. SPR) declined by 1.8 million barrels week-on-week, bringing total stocks to 428.4 million barrels. While smaller than the 5.9-million-barrel draw estimated by the API, inventories remain approximately 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Refined product inventories presented a mixed picture. Gasoline inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels (compared to API’s estimate of 1.8 million barrels), yet they remain 3% below the five-year average. Similarly, distillate inventories (diesel) rose by 0.4 million barrels but are still 5% below the five-year norm, contrasting with API’s estimate of a 2.5-million-barrel build. The modest crude draw continues to signal tight market conditions, particularly when combined with overall low inventory levels across petroleum products.
Refinery operations also provided important insights. US refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day, with facilities operating at 90.5% capacity. Crude imports declined sharply, averaging 6.1 million barrels per day, down 1.6 million barrels compared to the previous week. Over the past four weeks, total product supply – a key indicator of demand – averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, representing a 1% year-on-year increase. Gasoline demand remained steady, while distillate fuel demand declined by 3.4%, and jet fuel demand rose by 3.3%.
Despite this week’s bearish price action, the decline in US crude inventories, albeit smaller than expected, signals that market fundamentals remain somewhat tight and capping the downside to prices. Additionally, the drop in total commercial petroleum inventories – down by 1.8 million barrels last week – further underscores this. US inventories, alongside ongoing geopolitical developments and OPEC+ decisions, will continue to dominate the crude oil narrative in the coming weeks.


Analys
Increasing risk that OPEC+ will unwind the last 1.65 mb/d of cuts when they meet on 7 September

Pushed higher by falling US inventories and positive Jackson Hall signals. Brent crude traded up 2.9% last week to a close of $67.73/b. It traded between $65.3/b and $68.0/b with the low early in the week and the high on Friday. US oil inventory draws together with positive signals from Powel at Jackson Hall signaling that rate cuts are highly likely helped to drive both oil and equities higher.

Ticking higher for a fourth day in a row. Bank holiday in the UK calls for muted European session. Brent crude is inching 0.2% higher this morning to $67.9/b which if it holds will be the fourth trading day in a row with gains. Price action in the European session will likely be quite muted due to bank holiday in the UK today.
OPEC+ is lifting production but we keep waiting for the surplus to show up. The rapid unwinding of voluntary cuts by OPEC+ has placed the market in a waiting position. Waiting for the surplus to emerge and materialize. Waiting for OECD stocks to rise rapidly and visibly. Waiting for US crude and product stocks to rise. Waiting for crude oil forward curves to bend into proper contango. Waiting for increasing supply of medium sour crude from OPEC+ to push sour cracks lower and to push Mid-East sour crudes to increasing discounts to light sweet Brent crude. In anticipation of this the market has traded Brent and WTI crude benchmarks up to $10/b lower than what solely looking at present OECD inventories, US inventories and front-end backwardation would have warranted.
Quite a few pockets of strength. Dubai sour crude is trading at a premium to Brent crude! The front-end of the crude oil curves are still in backwardation. High sulfur fuel oil in ARA has weakened from parity with Brent crude in May, but is still only trading at a discount of $5.6/b to Brent versus a more normal discount of $10/b. ARA middle distillates are trading at a premium of $25/b versus Brent crude versus a more normal $15-20/b. US crude stocks are at the lowest seasonal level since 2018. And lastly, the Dubai sour crude marker is trading a premium to Brent crude (light sweet crude in Europe) as highlighted by Bloomberg this morning. Dubai is normally at a discount to Brent. With more medium sour crude from OPEC+ in general and the Middle East specifically, the widespread and natural expectation has been that Dubai should trade at an increasing discount to Brent. the opposite has happened. Dubai traded at a discount of $2.3/b to Brent in early June. Dubai has since then been on a steady strengthening path versus Brent crude and Dubai is today trading at a premium of $1.3/b. Quite unusual in general but especially so now that OPEC+ is supposed to produce more.
This makes the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on 7 September even more of a thrill. At stake is the next and last layer of 1.65 mb/d of voluntary cuts to unwind. The market described above shows pockets of strength blinking here and there. This clearly increases the chance that OPEC+ decides to unwind the remaining 1.65 mb/d of voluntary cuts when they meet on 7 September to discuss production in October. Though maybe they split it over two or three months of unwind. After that the group can start again with a clean slate and discuss OPEC+ wide cuts rather than voluntary cuts by a sub-group. That paves the way for OPEC+ wide cuts into Q1-26 where a large surplus is projected unless the group kicks in with cuts.
The Dubai medium sour crude oil marker usually trades at a discount to Brent crude. More oil from the Middle East as they unwind cuts should make that discount to Brent crude even more pronounced. Dubai has instead traded steadily stronger versus Brent since late May.

The Brent crude oil forward curve (latest in white) keeps stuck in backwardation at the front end of the curve. I.e. it is still a tight crude oil market at present. The smile-effect is the market anticipation of surplus down the road.

Analys
Brent edges higher as India–Russia oil trade draws U.S. ire and Powell takes the stage at Jackson Hole

Best price since early August. Brent crude gained 1.2% yesterday to settle at USD 67.67/b, the highest close since early August and the second day of gains. Prices traded to an intraday low of USD 66.74/b before closing up on the day. This morning Brent is ticking slightly higher at USD 67.76/b as the market steadies ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later today.

No Russia/Ukraine peace in sight and India getting heat from US over imports of Russian oil. Yesterday’s price action was driven by renewed geopolitical tension and steady underlying demand. Stalled ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine helped maintain a modest risk premium, while the spotlight turned to India’s continued imports of Russian crude. Trump sharply criticized New Delhi’s purchases, threatening higher tariffs and possible sanctions. His administration has already announced tariff hikes on Indian goods from 25% to 50% later this month. India has pushed back, defending its right to diversify crude sourcing and highlighting that it also buys oil from the U.S. Moscow meanwhile reaffirmed its commitment to supply India, deepening the impression that global energy flows are becoming increasingly politicized.
Holding steady this morning awaiting Powell’s address at Jackson Hall. This morning the main market focus is Powell’s address at Jackson Hole. It is set to be the key event for markets today, with traders parsing every word for signals on the Fed’s policy path. A September rate cut is still the base case but the odds have slipped from almost certainty earlier this month to around three-quarters. Sticky inflation data have tempered expectations, raising the stakes for Powell to strike the right balance between growth concerns and inflation risks. His tone will shape global risk sentiment into the weekend and will be closely watched for implications on the oil demand outlook.
For now, oil is holding steady with geopolitical frictions lending support and macro uncertainty keeping gains in check.
Oil market is starting to think and worry about next OPEC+ meeting on 7 September. While still a good two weeks to go, the next OPEC+ meeting on 7 September will be crucial for the oil market. After approving hefty production hikes in August and September, the question is now whether the group will also unwind the remaining 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts. Thereby completing the full phase-out of voluntary reductions well ahead of schedule. The decision will test OPEC+’s balancing act between volume-driven influence and price stability. The gathering on 7 September may give the clearest signal yet of whether the group will pause, pivot, or press ahead.
Analys
Brent sideways on sanctions and peace talks

Brent crude is currently trading around USD 66.2 per barrel, following a relatively tight session on Monday, where prices ranged between USD 65.3 and USD 66.8. While expectations of higher OPEC+ supply continue to weigh on sentiment, recent headlines have been dominated by geopolitics – particularly developments in Washington.

At the center is the White House meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and several key European leaders. During the meeting, Trump reportedly placed a direct call to Putin to discuss a potential bilateral sit-down between Putin and Zelenskyy, which several European officials have said could take place within two weeks.
While the Kremlin’s response remains vague, markets have interpreted this as a modestly positive signal, with both equities and global oil prices holding steady. Brent is marginally lower since yesterday’s close, while U.S. and Asian equity markets remain broadly flat.
Still, the political undertone is shifting, and markets may be underestimating the longer-term implications. According to the NY times, Putin has proposed a peace plan under which Russia would claim full control of the Donbas in exchange for dropping demands over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – territories it has not yet seized.
Meanwhile, discussions around Ukraine’s long-term security framework are starting to take shape. Zelenskyy appeared encouraged by Trump’s openness to supporting a post-war security guarantee for Ukraine. While the exact terms remain unclear, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff stated that Putin had signaled willingness to allow Washington and its allies to offer Kyiv a NATO-style collective defense guarantee – a move that would significantly reshape the regional security landscape.
As diplomatic efforts gain momentum, markets are also beginning to assess the potential consequences of a partial or full rollback of U.S. sanctions on Russian energy. Any unwind would likely be gradual and uneven, especially if European allies resist or delay alignment. The U.S. could act unilaterally by loosening financial restrictions, granting Russian firms greater access to Western capital and services, and effectively neutralizing the price cap mechanism. However, the EU embargo on Russian crude and products remains a more immediate constraint on flows – particularly as it continues to tighten.
Even if the U.S. were to ease restrictions, Moscow would remain heavily reliant on buyers like India and China to absorb the majority of its crude exports, as European countries are unlikely to quickly re-engage in energy trade. That shift is already playing out. As India pulls back amid newly doubled U.S. tariffs – a response to its ongoing Russian oil purchases – Chinese refiners have stepped in.
So far in August, Chinese imports of Russia’s Urals crude – typically shipped from Baltic and Black Sea ports – have nearly doubled from the YTD average, with at least two tankers idling off Zhoushan and more reportedly en route (Kpler data). The uptick is driven by attractive pricing and the absence of direct U.S. trade penalties on China, which remains in a delicate tariff truce with Washington.
Indian refiners, by contrast, are notably more cautious – receiving offers but accepting few. The takeaway is clear: China is acting as the buyer of last resort for surplus Russian barrels, likely directing them into strategic storage. While this may temporarily cushion the effects of sanctions relief, it cannot fully offset the constraints imposed by Europe’s ongoing absence.
As a result, any meaningful boost to global supply from a rollback of U.S. sanctions on Russia may take longer to materialize than headlines suggest.
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