Analys
SEB – Jordbruksprodukter, vecka 20 2012
Det här veckobrevet är tidigarelagt dels för att det är Kristi himmelsfärds dag på torsdag och dels för att vi har en WASDE-rapport att recensera.
Under helgen kom nyheten från Kina att landet sänkt reservkraven på kinesiska banker med 0.5%. Normalt borde det fått marknaderna för råvaror att stiga. Så sker inte. Merkels CDU har förlorat ett viktigt val i Tyskland. De flesta tolkar detta som att viljan att betala för resten av de skuldsatta länderna i Europa har minskat. Ett nytt politiskt kaos har drabbat Grekland och de flesta väntar sig att landet går i konkurs och får införa sin urgamla valuta drachman igen. Vi har en ny president vald i Frankrike, som inte tycks vara så inställd på att rädda sina grannländer. Räntan på spanska 10-åriga obligationer har stigit över 6% igen (6% innebär slutlig konkurs). Motsvarande ränta i Portugal är 11%. USA:s ekonomi hackar och Wall Street är i chock efter att JP Morgan, bankernas bank, redovisat 2 mdr dollar i vad som med rätta ska kallas kreditförluster. Kinas tillväxt hackar också, men de stimulerar den. Allt detta väcker tvivel om efterfrågan på råvaror.
Odlingsväder
Southern Oscillation Index, ett mått på intensiteten i graden av La Niña eller El Niño, ligger kvar därdet låg förra veckan. Nu är indexet 4.3. En nivå mellan +8 och -8 indikerar neutrala ENSOförhållanden.
Vete
WASDE-rapporten i torsdags. För 2011/12 gjordes inga större förändringar vad gäller produktion. Konsumtionen justerades däremot upp med 8 mt för Kanada, EU och Kina. För kommande skörd, marknadsföringsåret 2012/13 sänktes skörden med 17 mt netto. Skörden väntas bli större i USA och Kanada, i Kina och i Indien, men skörden väntas bli lägre I EU-27, fd Sovjetunionen och på södra halvklotet. Konsumtionen väntas bli som i år.
Sammanfattningsvis: Utgående globala lager för 2012/13 är något ”bullish”, men för världsmarknaden betyder USA i egenskap av den största exportören väldigt mycket. En skörd i USA på 61 mt mot 54 mt förra året och 60 mt för två år sedan, är bearish. Summa summarum, innehåll rapporten alltså inte några nyheter som allvarligt kunde flytta på priset just för vete. Däremot var majs-rapporten bearish och sojarapporten bullish. Och av detta betyder majsen mest för vetet. Nedan ser vi novemberkontraktet på Matif. Uppåttrenden är bruten och 200 euro är nu ett psykologiskt motstånd. 190 euro ser ut att ligga inom räckhåll.
Nedan ser vi Chicagovetet med leverans i december. Priset trendar nedåt efter att ha brutit stödet på 650 cent.
Maltkorn
Novemberkontraktet på maltkorn har brutit stödnivån 220 euro per ton. Priset har vänt på den här nivån strax under 220 flera gånger förut, så det är inte någon teknisk säljsignal än.
Majs
WASDE-rapporten i torsdag innehåll en uppjustering av Brasiliens just skördade skörd från 62 mt till 67 mt. Vi noterar att skörden 2012/13 väntas bli rekordstor. Orsaken är att ENSO slagit om från La Niña till neutrala förhållanden, eller rentav El Niño. Detta har vi sett i ensembleprognoserna sedan nyår. Skörden per acre i USA väntas öka med 20 bushels per acre eller med 13%. Efterfrågan väntas också hoppa uppåt med 54 mt. Det här är den första rapporten som ordentligt tagit in det riktigt goda odlingsklimatet på planeten under kommande år och den är därmed riktigt bearish.
Priset på decembermajs föll ner och ”rörde vid” 500 cent. Troligtvis ska marknaden testa den nivån igen. Bryts den får vi en förnyad säljsignal.
Sojabönor
WASDE-rapporten i torsdags: Lite mindre skörd antas ha bärgats i Sydamerika, framförallt gäller det Argentina. Utgående lager i höst väntas vara ännu lägre än tidigare trott. För kommande skörd väntas, som vi redan skrivit om, en rekordskörd i Sydamerika. Odlingsvädret, där ENSO slagit om till neutrala eller rentav El Niño-förhållanden är idealiskt inför sådden på södra halvklotet. Global produktion antas ligga 35 mt högre än i år. Konsumtionen väntas också öka och det innebär att utgående lager bara ökar något lite. Det är ännu lång tid kvar till skörd och mycket kan hända längs vägen. Majs är attraktivt att så och sojapriset måste hålla sig högt för att försvara arealen.
Marknaden har sålt på sojabönorna idag på grund av de ekonomiska nyheterna från Europa, som väcker farhågor om efterfrågan på ”bättre mat”.
1300 är en teknisk stödnivå då priset vände där i månadsskiftet mars-april. Återstår att se om nivån håller den här gången.
Raps
Priset på novemberterminen tycks ha toppat ur på 480 euro per ton.
Potatis
Potatispriset för leverans nästa år fortsätter att stiga. Priset är definitivt i stigande trend.
Gris
Det har av naturliga skäl inte hänt speciellt mycket med lean hogs sedan förra veckobrevet. Priset ligger på samma (låga) nivå.
Mjölk
Mjölkpriset (decemberleverans) handlas lite högre än förra veckan, på 15.68. Lägsta förra veckan var 15.38. Vi ser detta som en naturlig rekyl när några tycker att priset fallit för mycket för fort.
[box]SEB Veckobrev Jordbruksprodukter är producerat av SEB Merchant Banking och publiceras i samarbete och med tillstånd på Råvarumarknaden.se[/box]
Disclaimer
The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”).
Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents.
About SEB
SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.
Analys
Brent on a rollercoaster between bullish sanctions and bearish tariffs. Tariffs and demand side fears in focus today

Brent crude rallied to a high of USD 75.29/b yesterday, but wasn’t able to hold on to it and closed the day at USD 74.49/b. Brent crude has now crossed above both the 50- and 100-day moving average with the 200dma currently at USD 76.1/b. This morning it is trading a touch lower at USD 74.3/b

Brent riding a rollercoaster between bullish sanctions and bearish tariffs. Biden sanctions drove Brent to USD 82.63/b in mid-January. Trump tariffs then pulled it down to USD 68.33/b in early March with escalating concerns for oil demand growth and a sharp selloff in equities. New sanctions from Trump on Iran, Venezuela and threats of such also towards Russia then drove Brent crude back up to its recent high of USD 75.29/b. Brent is currently driving a rollercoaster between new demand damaging tariffs from Trump and new supply tightening sanctions towards oil producers (Iran, Venezuela, Russia) from Trump as well.
’Liberation day’ is today putting demand concerns in focus. Today we have ’Liberation day’ in the US with new, fresh tariffs to be released by Trump. We know it will be negative for trade, economic growth and thus oil demand growth. But we don’t know how bad it will be as the effects comes a little bit down the road. Especially bad if it turns into a global trade war escalating circus.
Focus today will naturally be on the negative side of demand. It will be hard for Brent to rally before we have the answer to what the extent these tariffs will be. Republicans lost the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin yesterday. So maybe the new Tariffs will be to the lighter side if Trump feels that he needs to tread a little bit more carefully.
OPEC+ controlling the oil market amid noise from tariffs and sanctions. In the background though sits OPEC+ with a huge surplus production capacity which it now will slice and dice out with gradual increases going forward. That is somehow drowning in the noise from sanctions and tariffs. But all in all, it is still OPEC+ who is setting the oil price these days.
US oil inventory data likely to show normal seasonal rise. Later today we’ll have US oil inventory data for last week. US API indicated last night that US crude and product stocks rose 4.4 mb last week. Close to the normal seasonal rise in week 13.
Analys
Oil gains as sanctions bite harder than recession fears

Higher last week and today as sanctions bite harder than recession fears. Brent crude gained 2% last week with a close on Friday of USD 73.63/b. It traded in a range of USD 71.8-74.17/b. It traded mostly higher through the week despite sharp, new selloffs in equities along with US consumer expectations falling to lowest level since 2013 (Consumer Conf. Board Expectations.) together with signals of new tariffs from the White House. Ahead this week looms the ”US Liberation Day” on April 2 when the White House will announce major changes in the country’s trade policy. Equity markets are down across the board this morning while Brent crude has traded higher and lower and is currently up 0.5% at USD 74.0/b at the moment.

New US sanctions towards Iran and Venezuela and threats of new sanctions towards Russia. New sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are helping to keep the market tight. Oil production in Venezuela reached 980 kb/d in February following a steady rise from 310 kb/d in mid-2020 while it used to produce 2.3 mb/d up to 2016. Trump last week allowed Chevron to import oil from Venezuela until 27 May. But he also said that any country taking oil or gas from Venezuela after 2 April will face 25% tariffs on any goods exported into the US. Trump is also threatening to sanction Russian oil further if Putin doesn’t move towards a peace solution with Ukraine.
The OPEC+ to meet on Saturday 5 April to decide whether to lift production in May or not. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet on Saturday 5 April to review market conditions, compliance by the members versus their production targets and most importantly decide whether they shall increase production further in May following first production hike in April. We find it highly likely that they will continue to lift production also in May.
OPEC(+) crashed the oil price twice to curb US shale, but it kicked back quickly. OPEC(+) has twice crashed the oil price in an effort to hurt and disable booming US shale oil production. First in 2014/15/16 and then in the spring of 2020. The first later led to the creation of OPEC+ through the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in the autumn of 2016. The second was in part driven by Covid-19 as well as a quarrel between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market strategy. But the fundamental reason for that quarrel and the crash in the oil price was US shale oil producers taking more and more market share.
The experience by OPEC+ through both of these two events was that US shale oil quickly kicked back even bigger and better yielding very little for OPEC+ to cheer about.
OPEC+ has harvested an elevated oil price but is left with a large spare capacity. The group has held back large production volumes since Spring 2020. It yielded the group USD 100/b in 2022 (with some help from the war in Ukraine), USD 81/b on average in 2023/24 and USD 75/b so far this year. The group is however left with a large spare capacity with little room to place it back into the market without crashing the price. It needs non-OPEC+ in general and US shale oil especially to yield room for it to re-enter.
A quick crash and painful blow to US shale oil is no longer the strategy. The strategy this time is clearly very different from the previous two times. It is no longer about trying to give US shale oil producers a quick, painful blow in the hope that the sector will stay down for an extended period. It is instead a lengthier process of finding the pain-point of US shale oil players (and other non-OPEC+ producers) through a gradual increase in production by OPEC+ and a gradual decline in the oil price down to the point where non-OPEC+ in general and US liquids production especially will gradually tick lower and yield room to the reentry of OPEC+ spare capacity. It does not look like a plan for a crash and a rush, but instead a tedious process where OPEC+ will gradually force its volumes back into the market.
Where is the price pain-point for US shale oil players? The Brent crude oil price dropped from USD 84/b over the year to September last year to USD 74/b on average since 1 September. The values for US WTI were USD 79/b and USD 71/b respectively. A drop of USD 9/b for both crudes. There has however been no visible reaction in the US drilling rig count following the USD 9/b fall. The US drilling rig count has stayed unchanged at around 480 rigs since mid-2024 with the latest count at 484 operating rigs. While US liquids production growth is slowing, it is still set to grow by 580 kb/d in 2025 and 445 kb/d in 2026 (US EIA).
US shale oil average cost-break-even at sub USD 50/b (BNEF). Industry says it is USD 65/b. BNEF last autumn estimated that all US shale oil production fields had a cost-break-even below USD 60/b with a volume weighted average just below USD 50/b while conventional US onshore oil had a break-even of USD 65/b. A recent US Dallas Fed report which surveyed US oil producers did however yield a response that the US oil industry on average needed USD 65/b to break even. That is more than USD 15/b higher than the volume weighted average of the BNEF estimates.
The WTI 13-to-24-month strip is at USD 64/b. Probably the part of the curve controlling activity. As such it needs to move lower to curb US shale oil activity. The WTI price is currently at USD 69.7/b. But the US shale oil industry today works on a ”12-month drilling first, then fracking after” production cycle. When it considers whether to drill more or less or not, it is typically on a deferred 12-month forward price basis. The average WTI price for months 13 to 24 is today USD 64/b. The price signal from this part of the curve is thus already down at the pain-point highlighted by the US shale oil industry. In order to yield zero growth and possibly contraction in US shale oil production, this part of the curve needs to move below that point.
The real pain-point is where we’ll see US drilling rig count starting to decline. We still don’t know whether the actual average pain-point is around USD 50/b as BNEF estimate it is or whether it is closer to USD 65/b which the US shale oil bosses say it is. The actual pain-point is where we’ll see further decline in US drilling rig count. And there has been no visible change in the rig count since mid-2024. The WTI 13-to-24-month prices need to fall further to reveal where the US shale oil industry’ actual pain-point is. And then a little bit more in order to slow production growth further and likely into some decline to make room for reactivation of OPEC+ spare capacity.
The WTI forward price curve. The average of 13 to 24 month is now USD 64.3/b.
The average 13-to-24-month prices on the WTI price curve going back to primo January 2022. Recently dropping below USD 65/b for some extended period.
Analys
Brent Edges Lower After Resisting Equity Slump – Sanctions, Saudi Pricing in Focus

Brent has defied bearish equities for three days but is losing its stamina today. Brent gained 0.3% yesterday with a close of USD 74.03/b, the highest close since 27 February and almost at the high of the day. It traded as low as USD 73.23/b. Brent has now defied the equity selloff three days in a row by instead ticking steadily higher. A sign of current spot tightness. This morning however it is losing some of its stamina and is down 0.5% at USD 73.7/b along with negative equities and yet higher gold prices.

The new US Iran sanctions is creating frictions in getting its oil to market and helps keeping oil market tight. Part of the current tightness is due to the new US sanctions on Iran which. Ships containing 17 mb of its oil now sits idle east of Malaysia waiting (Bloomberg) for ship-to-ship transfers with China teapot refineries the normal final destination. But the latest US sanctions has probably made these refineries much more cautious. More friction before Iranian oil is reaching its final destination if at all. Tighter market.
Lower Saudi OSPs for May is expected. A signal of a softer market ahead as OPEC+ lifts production. Saudi Aramco is expected to reduce it official selling price (OSPs) for Arab Light to Asia for May deliveries by USD 2/b. A measure to make its oil more competitive in relative to other crudes suppliers. It is also a sign of a softer market ahead. Naturally so since OPEC+ is set to lift production in April and also most likely in May. If Saudi Aramco reduces its OSPs to Asia for May across its segments of crudes, then it is a signal it is expecting softer oil market conditions. But news today is only discussing Arab Light while the main tightness int the market today is centered around medium sour crude segment. A lowering of the OSPs for the heavier and more sour grades will thus be a more forceful bearish signal.
Front-end backwardation may ease as the Brent May contract rolls off early next week. The Brent May future will roll off early next week. It will be interesting to see how that affects the front-end 1-3mth backwardation as it is shifted out into summer where a softer market is expected.
Brent is boring like crazy with 30dma annualized volatility of just 21%. Waiting for something to happen.

Brent crude has defied three days of bearish equity markets and ticked higher instead. Caving in a bit this morning with yet another day of bearish equities and bullish gold.

-
Nyheter3 veckor sedan
USA är världens största importör av aluminium
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedan
OPEC+ börjar öka oljeutbudet från april
-
Analys3 veckor sedan
Crude oil comment: Unable to rebound as the US SPX is signaling dark clouds on the horizon
-
Analys4 veckor sedan
Oversold. Rising 1-3mth time-spreads. Possibly rebounding to USD 73.5/b before downside ensues
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedan
Arctic Minerals är ett nordiskt mineralprospekterings- och gruvutvecklingsbolag
-
Analys3 veckor sedan
Crude oil comment: Not so fragile yet. If it was it would have sold off more yesterday
-
Analys4 veckor sedan
A deliberate measure to push oil price lower but it is not the opening of the floodgates
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedan
Priset på koppar skiljer sig åt efter tariffer