The WTI bulls are coming. Curve set to flip to backwardation
A cocktail of bullish factors are hitting the supply side. We have ongoing cuts by OPEC+. Venezuela is deteriorating rapidly with latest news that due to a blackout its main port…
Analys
Analyser på råvaror från ledande banker och analysföretag. Både längre analysbrev och kortare tradingidéer.
Bearish macro backdrop but bull-drivers inch it higher
Brent crude moved up 1.2% over the past week to a close of $66.67/bl yesterday. The move was mostly in the front part of the curve thus driving the curve more into backwardation.…
Biggest Brent/WTI curve-shape-divergence since Feb 2016
Brent crude traded down 1.0% yesterday to $61.51/bl following a 1% decline last week. A stronger USD was again an important negative driver as the dollar index gained 0.4%…
El Niño: the impact on agricultural commodities
El Niño refers to a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that has a global impact on weather patterns. The name, which loosely translates to ‘Christ child’, traces its origin…
Trade war and Nopec-shake, but market looks like tightening
Brent crude sold off 1.7% yesterday with a close of $61.63/bl but has rebounded 0.4% today trading at $61.8/bl. The sell-off came on the back of a 0.9% decline in S&P 500 and…
Gold outlook 2019 – recovery expected to continue
Gold staged a recovery late in 2018. The yellow metal has recovered most of its losses since June 2018. A collapse in speculative positioning in gold futures drove prices down in…
Crude oil prices needs to move lower in Q1-19
Brent crude closed down 2.8% yesterday at $59.93/bl while WTI closed down a bit more violently 3.2% at $51.99/bl. A 0.8% decline in the S&P 500 was a bearish guiding force for…
Venezuela is bullish but S&P 500 still looks like the driver
Brent crude has gained 21% since Christmas eve following a comparable 12.4% recovery in the S&P 500 index. So just as the sell-off in Brent crude went more or less hand in…
Silver outlook 2019 – not as good as gold
Alongside gold, silver has staged a rally late in 2018, gaining just over 10% in the month of December 2018. Silver’s close correlation with gold (around 80%) helps explain the…
Oil price bottoming in Q1-19 seems like a fair bet
Q1: When will pledged cuts by OPEC+ become visible in oil inventory data? Q2: When will we see softer US oil production growth due to lower oil prices? Q3: When will the global…