Our focus this month is on what the tumbling oil prices imply for our key theme of growth and monetary policy divergence, particularly in light of the European Central Bank’s decision to add sovereign bonds to its quantitative easing (QE).
The global economy is dealing with the biggest oil supply glut since the mid-1980s, and financial markets continue to sort the winners from the losers.
In our view, lower oil prices are not a zero-sum game. Although the main impact is a transfer of wealth from producers to consumers; they are a net positive for the global economy, supporting growth, reducing inflation, improving importers’ external balances and giving space for global central banks to ease.
What to watch this month: Riksbank meeting (Feb 12) to monitor Sweden’s response to the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing; deadline for Greek package (Feb 28) for clarity on the eurozone debt situation; U.S. employment (Feb 6) CPI (Feb 26) for clarity on the Fed’s rate path.
